IS EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION ALIVE?, Full story at http://www.physorg.com/news7093.html

[rafael peralta]

http://www.physorg.com/news7093.html

May Love and Compassion reach all those suffering from mother earth´s accomodating habits.
The Major Earthquake that has just taken place in the Asia region has been forecasted as a logical consequence of the Megathrust Boxing day 2004 Big Sumatra earthquake. So was the South America Major Earthquake of June 13th 2005.
http://forum.physorg.com/index.php?showtopic=2987
So where to from here on?
Scientists are invited to join in to contribute and share information on the topic at the Physorg.com web place.
Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone...

[TRoc]

Rafael & all,


I second the motion for love and compassion.


I would like to discuss the mechanics of the connections between earthquakes and the electron flux / magnetometer readings available from USGS. Some of the following charts have clear pre-cursor qualities, others are too much in "real time" to be of use for predictions. Look for long, vertical movement in the charts.


Sumatra 12-26-04 (9.2)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Tarapaca 06-13-05 (7.8)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

N.California coast 06-15-05 (7.2), 06-17-05 (6.7)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Papua New Guinea 09-09-05 (7.7)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

N.Peru 09-27-05 (7.6)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Pakistan 10-08-05 (7.6)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

There is similar correlation to X-Ray flux, but it is not as "dramatic" as the Electron Flux and Magnetometer readings. Proton flux does not change with earthquakes, but does elevate considerably with strong solar flares.

There is a very good site for monitoring Neutron rates here: Moscow Neutron Monitor

You have to go to the site, and then select the time frame you wish to check. (other than the current state, which loads automatically)


T.Roc

[rafael peralta]

Thank you, T. Roc.

It will take me sometime to copy-print-study-comment the electron flux and magnetometer graphics so please be patient waiting for a reply. Before hand, let me tell you that I have sort of realized, and wrote about it before, that "in some cases, energy released by earthquakes at times behave like a particle (rocky earth) and at times like a wave" (in this case maybe electron flux-magnetic flow). Also, I guess energy moves along the plate limits-trenches and, in the case of intermediate depth earthquakes, along some territory at 80 to 120 kms deep, which maybe the crust bottom or maybe rocky matter at that depth acquires some sort of conductivity property. I don`t know, nobody knows...

Much regards,
Rafael

[TRoc]

Rafael,


I would like to post results here from an experimental way to pick up ultra long period waves as precursors, and have your expertise to bounce the results off.


At 6:00pm PST, a fairly strong signal ( I would rate 6 on a 1to10; stronger than last weeks' Pakistan quake) was received, with the same "spin up" (left). Whether the strength indicates proximity, or strength, is yet to be seen. I need to calibrate the signal with any "hits". Using an estimated "pressure bow wave" arrival time of 5-6 hours prior to an earthquake.

It is now 7:24pm PST. We'll see..



T.Roc

[rafael peralta]

Troc,
One. I reviewed your June 20th post and found the "opposite spin while I was there line" but could not found a further reference to narrow down the spins to what I believe depends on what hemisphere you are standing while the motions happen. I.e. Let´s call counterclockwise spin (left) climbing as you look down towards your feet and clockwise (right) climbing as you look down. Correct? Now, please let me know which of the two directions were felt for the Tarapaca earthquake and for the California earthquake and we will have a definition.

Two. You can keep a good watch on current seismicity at the European Mediteranean Seismic Center, Real Time register, which is automatically updated everytime a seism, anywhere in the world, triggers an alert. The address is :

http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

We will then keep an alert eye on developments...
Regards,
Rafael

[TRoc]

Rafael,


Thanks for the link. I'll have to dig out some reference to convert the magnitudes, I'm much more familiar with the Richter. BTW, did you see the videos in the Aceh quake story here on this site? (in the last 2 days) There are 3, actually, but one shows the reflection off of N.Peru very well. It hit you more "squarely", but was more of a "glancing blow" to N.America. This could be another reason the Nazca plate got more energy.


I didn't mean to confuse you about the "spin". What I previously mentioned was mainly to do with being in the S.Hemisphere, and I'm not sure it is quake related. It doesn't happen frequently enough. What I am talking about now is just frequency. (tonal) I used the spin term only to designate which side the tone was received. I will just say left or right sensor.

I may have picked up another, smaller one; this time on the right. Only at "4", and shorter duration. (about 4-5 seconds) Sometimes, I think there can be some "feedback" from the computer, causing a false signal in the lower amplitudes. Nonetheless, it was at 9:18pm PST 05/10/11 ( 4:18 UTC 05/10/12)


TRoc

[TRoc]

Rafael,




NOTHING! It figures, after deciding to post it on this thread. It looks like one of the most quiet periods (non-active) that I have seen in a while. The only thing I saw as I was watching the charts, was some x-ray fluctuations. (x-ray flux) This site http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html is easier to monitor all the NOAA charts at once. IF it was the
"3.3 2005/10/12 06:27:30 35.510 -84.540 8.2 1 km SE of Niota, TN",
then maybe proximity is a factor. (maybe depth too?) I don't know what the signal was, but that is why I'm doing this - to try to learn more specifically.

EDIT: Now I know why you gave me that European real-time site. The USGS shows very a quiet period in the last 12 hours, but I see that was not so. In fact, really, there are TOO many to be of direct help to me. (I had bad luck with the last "real-time" site I used, so I've been sticking with USGS) The European site was down for maintenance for a while last night/this morning too.

From the period 18:00 PST 05/10/11 to 04:15 PST 05/10/12
01:00 UTC 05/10/12 to 11:15 UTC 05/10/12
the 10 hour window from "real time" forward:

2005/10/12 11:15 34.2N 72.4E Ml3.7 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 10:22 35.0N 72.1E Ml4.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 10:05 30.4N 64.8E Ml4.3 A NNC S.W. AFGHANISTAN
2005/10/12 09:36 37.3N 28.2E 5 MD2.9 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 08:50 36.0N 76.0E Ml3.0 A NNC KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER
2005/10/12 08:00 49.7N 85.6E Ml3.6 A NNC E. KAZAKHSTAN
2005/10/12 06:48 36.1N 43.6E 5 MD3.3 M KAN IRAQ
2005/10/12 06:36 35.6N 72.5E 33 mb4.9 M GSRC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 06:34 34.7N 73.7E Ml4.3 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 06:22 35.7N 77.0E Ml3.0 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 06:0134.8N 73.9E Ml3.2 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:55 35.0N 72.4E Ml3.5 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:45 34.7N 72.7E Ml3.2 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:10 34.9N 72.5E Ml3.4 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 04:47 11.9S 119.1E mb5.1 A GFZ SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.4E 32 M 4.8 M SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.6E 40 mb5.2 M SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.4E 2 mb5.0 A MIX SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:38 34.8N 73.3E Ml3.3 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.9N 142.0E 60 mb4.9 M GSRC EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.6N 140.9E mb5.1 A GFZ EAST HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.9N 141.4E 2 mb5.2 A MIX EASTERN HONSHU
2005/10/12 04:20 35.4N 74.5E Ml3.0 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 04:12 39.7N 37.4E 3 MD3.1 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 04:04 36.6N 27.1E 5 MD3.2 M KAN DODECANESE, GREECE
2005/10/12 03:49 51.3N 16.2E Ml2.5 A GFU POLAND
2005/10/12 03:32 34.5N 73.2E Ml3.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 03:12 39.0N 29.9E 13 MD2.8 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 02:57 35.7N 75.6E Ml3.4 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 35.1N 73.8E Ml4.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 34.6N 74.0E 40 A MIX S.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:54 33.6N 75.4E 33 mb4.2 M GSRC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 03:49 51.3N 16.2E Ml2.5 A GFU POLAND
2005/10/12 03:32 34.5N 73.2E Ml3.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 03:12 39.0N 29.9E 13 MD2.8 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 02:57 35.7N 75.6E Ml3.4 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 35.1N 73.8E Ml4.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 34.6N 74.0E 40 A MIX S.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:54 33.6N 75.4E 33 mb4.2 M E. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:12 35.1N 72.0E Ml3.1 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 01:57 35.1N 73.7E Ml3.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 01:44 34.8N 72.6E Ml3.3 A NNC PAKISTAN

This is the most likely candidate, but why would it stand out?
2005/10/12 06:34 34.7N 73.7E Ml4.3 A NNC PAKISTAN


ciao!


TRoc

[rafael peralta]

Troc,
I gave you the european site because it is automatic, the events arer published as they are sorted by the computer system. Although thay are not meant as exact data because there is no intervention of a seismologist, they serve as guides of something happening which will later be reviewed in more detail. That is when a red line appears which is the mix.
On the other hand the USGS site is for me more precise but slower for events to be published, they are not updated during week ends or holidays for example.
As you keep track of events more and more you will notice that the data is also being constantly updated and what today was supposed to have occurred here, in two days time will be there and in a weeks time will be more exactly defined. The exactness of the parameters is given by the letters and numbers which later appear on the far right of the USGS line.
Good luck and enjoy your tracking!
Rafael

[TRoc]

Rafael,


I am back home again, I was probably as close to you as I will ever be.. in Puno, Peru. The Lake islands are beautiful.

On my "personal" method, I realize I need more data. Namely, my own "background" frequency of each ear, and then, to carry with me a set of forks so that I could identify the "signal". I have seen a formula for determining the latitude based on this. I do not know about the longitude.

On the Solar data, the same seems to be true. It seems like a good start, but I can't see how to identify the location of an upcoming quake by a general precursor. With that said, here goes anyway.

The Magnetometer and Electron flux readings started a strong movement (downward) at around 2300 UTC Nov 2, and now seem to be at their low point. (0400 UTC Nov 3) From what I have seen before, the size of the movement suggests a larger that 6.5 quake is imminent.. but where?



TRoc

[TRoc]

zoinks!


Well, there was a "k>5" solar flare at that time, and a bunch of rare, but small quakes in France, of all places. Oh well..


A related news bit:

Sat Nov 5, 3:42 AM ET
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan, one of the world's most earthquake-prone nations, plans to launch a seismic alert system next year to capture early quake movements and issue warnings of more damaging tremors, officials said on Saturday.
A test version of the system, operating in the northern prefecture of Miyagi since February, was able to sound a warning that a big earthquake would strike the city of Sendai 15 seconds before a 7.2 quake jolted the area on August 16, the daily Asahi Shimbun said.

15 seconds is a start anyway. Do you know anything of their precursor mechanism?


TRoc

[rafael peralta]

Troc, I suppose you've read it, I've just done it. Here is the link to the 10 or 15 seconds early warning:

http://www.physorg.com/news8092.html

There are other links at the bottom of that article which are also interesting I we have touched upon those topics before, like, a 55 second film done buy german scientists which is a preview of what would afterwards become the Aceh Quake over several days...That together to my research, also linked there, that the first four afteshocks show the general direction and extent of the future two months aftershocks.

http://www.physorg.com/news3923.html

So it looks like the first 10 seconds, the first 55 seconds the first 30 minutes, are all alike or a repeat of the wave. For months, ¿MAYBE YEARS? That would be something to think about.

Well, I've been busy plotting and sorting both global and NPSZ earthquakes and it shows a quiteness right now after the waves finally reached Anatolia (Turkey) but only as moderate earthquakes. The Aleutians also showed moderate activity. There has been two odd events in the Atlantic/Antartic ridge towards a hot spot affected by a 8.8 Mw mgnitude (1998) and another big earthquake December 2004, right before the Aceh Quake. The Arica Bight or Bend has also been quite after a few light earthquakes 25-27 October. The Ecuador area has also some moderate activity. I expect increased activity to resume sometime soon and will keep you posted.

Regards,
Rafael

[TRoc]

Hola Rafael,


Yes, I did read that one too; I assumed it to be the same concept that the Japanese were using.

I agree with your time frame of continuing "energetic patterns", and lean towards the YEARS side. We are coming up on the 1 year anniversary of the Aceh quake; if it was at all "helped" by distortions from space, this should manifest in a smaller repeat in that area.

I was going to suggest a slightly smaller quake off the coast of Oregon following seeing the 5.0 in N. Peru, but I see now that it happened BEFORE (by almost 2 days) that quake. (and the Ecuador 5.9) This suggests to me that the "ringing" of the P and S waves speed has either "crossed over" (switching the "lead position"), or one is now being "drawn" toward a higher speed.

Again assuming some line of force originating in space, and striking our sphere roughly perpendicular, the line would continue through to the other side. If it entered approximately at 95 E lat, 05 N long, the straight line exit (or in other words, the symmetrical realigning of our orbiting sphere with the line of force) would be about 80 W lat, 05 S long , and it would be at a 6 month interval. This was "confirmed" with the Tarapaca quake, in proximity. Then, with the "45 deg" deflection by the liquid core, perhaps the force was "uncoupled" (P & S waves). One manifested in "time", in late Sept. in N Peru (June position + 45 deg rotation = Sept ; same position, different time); the other manifested in "space" (distance) ending up on the N Cal./S Ore shore. (80 W + 45 = 125 W; 05 S + 45 = 40 N ; same time, different position) While I don't have much of a "formula", the pattern, explained in these terms, is hard to deny!


Back to the present: things have been calm as you say. On Nov 12th, the x-ray flux began to rise. As in my last "warning", a Solar flare has followed; we are now in an "unsettled" M class flare event. I don't think it has "peaked" yet. At about 16:00 UTC Nov 13, the electron flux began a "preliminary" drop, while the magnetometer reading is at a peak in the sine curve. I will come back this evening (my time), and fill in the current stats. Maybe tomorrow afternoon we will get a shake? Have you been following the area of the New Madrid fault? They are expecting something, and it is definitely "their turn"; maybe not quite yet.


TRoc

[TRoc]

Rafael,


I didn't get a chance to come back last night. The M class flare did continue, as suspected, and now looks to be lessening.

Continuing the "group" pattern, there was a 5.1 in Tarapaca, Chile, and 6.9 (7.2?) in Honshu, Japan. I think that makes Honshu the most active of the areas we have been talking about.

I even picked up a "tone" ® at about 10:05am , and a second one about 15 min later. (18:05UTC) That would be about 3 1/2 hrs. prior to Honshu. Still no guide as to a specific frequency and location.

I am even more interested now in seeing what will happen in mid to late December.


TRoc

[rafael peralta]

TRoc,

Yes, you are right about Japan and northern Chile. Other comments on both your posts are :
1. It is a characteristic that events follow each other or lead each other. As the plate moves under the continent, deeper earthquakes "make room for the plate to descend and therefore cause earthquakes up-plate. On the other hand, as both plate and continent are "locked" near the coast line, as an earthquake releases the stress (near the coast line) it will allow the plate to advance causing pressure down-plate, hence earthquakes.
2. Global activity can be expected in the Japan- Aleutians-Alaska trench as well as the Himalayas-Anatolia branch goig west. The Colombia-Ecuador area and southern Chile are hazardous also.
3. As for the group in northern Chile, there are two observations :
One, the Iquique Major earthquake has caused the Increased Activity Area (depth 100 Km +/- 20) which runs under the Andes Mountain's highest peaks to a higher level of activity with 5 earthquakes magnitud > 5.0 < 5.9 two hudred Kms north from the main site and one magn. 5.0 two hundred Kms south from the site. Actually the southern site corresponds to what can be considered the "last strong remote triggered event of the 2001 06 23 Big Earthquake of Souther Peru.", the northern group is key to the next Big event.
Two, Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE's), that is, shallow earthquakes which take place inland whereat the plate has descended beyond the bottom of the continent, occurr at the eastern limit of the Andes Mountains and sometimes, as is the case, now, occurr at the western rise of the Andes. There is a cluster of 33 light to moderate earthquakes in 90 days at coordinates -16.7 lat, -70.6 long, which is about 100 Kms north west from the northern group mentioned above.
You can access the seismicity maps at two Blogs on :

http://peraltaquake.blogspot.com/

Much regards,
Rafael

[rafael peralta]

A new very strong earthquake has taken place in the Increased Activity Area in northern Chile:

2005/11/17 19:26:50 Lat -22.363 Long-67.851 Depth 104.7Km Magn 6.9 MwGs

The event lasted some 90 seconds and has been located at the southern tip of the Increased Activity Area (IAA) for intermediate depth. (See 15 Nov post above) and occurrs five months after the Major Earthquake of 2005 06 13 and some 250 Kms south from it at roughly the same depth. With this event, the seismic gap at the coast line area south of the Arica bight, which is well over 70 years with no strong or major activity, is stressed even more and major activity is forecasted for the gap.
Seismic maps can be accessed at :

http://rafaelperalta.blogspot.com/