EARTHQUAKES PREDICTIONS REVIEWED, EARTHQUAKES FOLLOWING THE 9.3 ACEH EVENT

Following the April 10th entry into earthquakes warning topic,

http://lofi.forum.physorg.com/earthquakes-warning_1544.html,

It has now been noted that the Amazon Basin is pulsating,
http://www.physorg.com/news6572.html

It has also occurred a Major, 7.5 Mw magnitude aftershock in the Aceh quake rupture, on July 24th 2005, two Major Earthquakes occurred in the Aleutian Branch (Japan and California), and South America had its 7.8 Major Earthquake bringing balance up to the deficit. The Tonga Branch also had its share, only the Anatolia Branch still pending...

Here is the list of Major Earthquakes post-Aceh,for you to plot as I still don't find a way to insert a seismicity map into this 21st century forum!

FILE CREATED: Sat Sep 17 21:02:35 2005
Global Search Earthquakes= 8
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2005 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 09/Day: 17
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE

PDE-W 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwGS
PDE-W 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS
PDE-W 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.70 MwHRV (Sumatra)
PDE-W 2005 06 13 224433.90 -19.99 -69.20 115 7.80 MwGS (Tarapaca)
PDE-W 2005 06 15 025053.18 41.30 -125.97 10 7.20 MwHRV (California)
PDE-W 2005 07 24 154206.21 7.92 92.19 16 7.50 Ms GS (Sumatra)
PDE-Q 2005 08 16 024628.39 38.25 142.08 36 7.20 MwHRV (Japan)
PDE-Q 2005 09 09 072643.59 -4.54 153.46 90 7.70 MwHRV (Tonga)

As the predicted follow ups happen accordingly, it will become evident that earthquakes are "related" and not "chaotic"

Regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !

A Major Earthquake has now occurred in Northern Peru. The preliminary data is :

DATE TIME LAT LONG DEPTH MAGNITUDE

2005 09 26 015535 -5.66 -76.36 85 7.5 mbGS

Here is the link to the USGS page

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/usdlad.htm

Rafael,

Nice to hear from you again.

Of course, I am feeling pretty good about this:

TRoc Posted: Jun 15 2005, 10:54 PM


"... Now add the fact that the Sumatra quake happened the week after winter solstice and the Tarapaca quake ocurred a week before the winter soltice (S.Hemisphere). [I won't go into the angular intersection of our magnetic field with extra-terrestial based radiations]

Given the follow-up Sumatra quake of 8.7 on 28 march 2005, what do you think of the possibility of a quake happening near Lima in the latter part of September of this year, in the neighborhood of 7.4?


TRoc "



Three days after the fall equinox (1/4 node), the symmetry was returned.

Now the question is, " when will the northern hemisphere return its' symmetry?"



TRoc

Rafael,


Here is a similar Earth-bulge to the 1 you mentioned before..
Mystery Bulge in Oregon Still Growing

If you Google on "Yosemite Park - lake moving", you can get another ground bulge story.


Following my last post, the Northern California (offshore) quake could repeat with about a 6.7 quake around the 28th of September. However, I'm not so sure that it won't be "dampened" by the Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) event going on right now in the Cascadia margin near Vancouver. If that is the case, and the 2 "probabilities" line up, it could set off a major rupture in the Cascade Subduction Zone. That would be near the Sumatra quake level - 8.8 - 9.2. There is a great amount of energy in this overdue fault, and all the recent activity in Alaska and California have geographically "funneled" more energy in that direction. Watch for 1 (or both?) of these in the next week.

Links:
Slow Seismic Slip Event Underway in Pacific Northwest

'Slow' earthquakes are pushing Vancouver Island toward Japan



T.Roc

All,

Follow up.

Obviously, no "lining up", or adding of energy. The slow slip event moved in a South-Westerly direction, contra to its' normal movement. Here is my case for the "dampening" effect.

A string (literally) of earthquakes occurred during the time frame I mentioned. Starting with

Magnitude 4.2 - OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
2005 September 26 16:52:45 UTC
43.108°N, 126.450°W
Magnitude 2.1 - OFFSHORE OREGON
2005 September 26 18:11:04 UTC
44.322°N, 124.591°W
Magnitude 3.0 - MOUNT ST. HELENS AREA, WASHINGTON
2005 September 27 15:36:17 UTC
46.200°N, 122.192°W
Magnitude 1.2 - WASHINGTON
2005 September 26 17:52:50 UTC

It is unfortunate that I can not post the map here (the link always goes to the current period, and past events are in list form only). But, from the area I mentioned (N.Cal/S.Ore), in a North-West direction, and terminating in the are of the ETS event (gaged at 6.7 "energy") this "line up" of quakes happened. You could also look at it as the ETS being a negative phase wave of 6.7 mag. absorbing any smaller quakes in that direction (+phase).

When the ETS event ended (~ Sept 28-29), this swarm occurred:

3.8 2005/10/02 01:10:01 44.533 -115.990 5.0 5 km ( 3 mi) ENE of Cascade, ID
3.5 2005/09/30 14:59:36 44.573 -116.051 5.0 6 km ( 4 mi) N of Cascade, ID
3.7 2005/09/29 13:50:16 44.508 -116.047 5.0 SOUTHERN IDAHO
3.8 2005/09/28 23:20:45 44.593 -116.049 5.0 9 km ( 5 mi) N of Cascade, ID
3.5 2005/09/28 23:18:00 44.531 -115.994 5.0 4 km ( 3 mi) ENE of Cascade, ID
3.8 2005/09/28 05:27:31 44.603 -116.064 5.0 10 km ( 6 mi) N of Cascade, ID
3.8 2005/09/28 05:27:32 44.603 -116.064 5.0 SOUTHERN IDAHO
2.6 2005/09/27 20:55:20 44.614 -116.106 5.0 SOUTHERN IDAHO

This begs the question: When the ETS direction "returns" to normal, does it do an immediate direction change, or spin around 180 degrees? This swarm is at 90 degrees to the line of earthquakes mentioned above. There were similar sized quakes, continuing in this 90 degree direction, in Utah and Colorado during the same time frame.

Interesting.


Misc. news:

Oct. 6, 2005

Quake Prediction Gets Shake-Up

From that article: "They were particularly interested in the relative frequency of major and minor quakes, what seismologists call the b-value.

The lower the b-value, the greater the increase in tension in the Earth's crust, which entails a greater risk of major quakes. While this has been known for decades, the FOI model uses the information in a new way to plot the b-value ratios in time and space.

"We found that all of the major tremors were clearly visible in a time perspective. The b-value dropped drastically before the big quakes," said FOI researcher Leif Persson in a statement. "


Earth's Tides Set Off Quakes

From that article: ""We're talking about an earthquake that was bound to happen anyway," explained the study's lead author, Elizabeth Cochran, a UCLA graduate student. "(Tectonic) plates are stressed every day with tidal stresses, but sometimes this is enough to push it over the edge."

The added stress could cause an earthquake to occur hours earlier than if the high tides were not present, she said. Conversely, it could keep an earthquake from happening right away if it counterbalanced another stress on the fault line in question. "

This last link talks about one of the "causals" that I was using when I made the Volcanic predictions on the last thread, as well as for earthquake.


T.Roc

Hi All, Troc,

Well, is hard to follow up all that information which I read with interest, after all, parts always add to the total. In any case, here is what I think:

- First, as predicted, one of the missing Major Earthquakes this year did take place in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone in South America in 2005 06 13, a 7.8 Mw magnitude. Then the California Major Earthquake, Japan, etc...

http://lofi.forum.physorg.com/earthquakes-warning_1544.html,

- Now, the "Anatolia Branch", as predicted, has had its Major Earthquake which was the only one still pending... (EARTHQUAKES PREDICTIONS REVIEWED posted on September 18th 2005)
The news is on today's weblog:
- Huge quake rocks South Asia, thousands feared dead , 22 minutes ago ...

If you look at a Tectonic Plates Map of the World you will notice a HUGE TRIPLE JUNCTION in the Sumatra- Borneo region which is where (on December 26th 2004)the big release of energy started the sequence of major earthquakes mentioned in this forum. Also, if you plot earthquakes on a map, taking into account its depth, there comes a point where one can actually "see" a slow rupture taking place, or that this or that had to happen. I am sure Troc gets a glimpse of that also.

- Secondly, I do not give a lot of statistical importance to microseisms, or those below magnitude 4.0. Since there is thousands of them, they can occurr anywhere and everywhere and at all times, so they can also be interpreted in any way. Although they could lead you into "something" they would still be there whithout the "something".

- Third and last, I congratulate the people who created and run this webplace whereat views are exchanged and information of all kinds is found, not to mention Internet, itself!

Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone apex in Arica, Chile.

Rafael,


Congratulations to you as well ! Your work on "the Big Picture" is very good.


What next is a good question. I will jump to the other thread you started for some comments.


T.Roc

Hi all,


Recent news:

(reported at Physorg.com)

This was right on schedule, at around 14 months (+/- 2 mo) from the last one, mentioned in this thread previously.

The same type of quake(s) occurred near the Juan de Fuca plate (offshore Oregon) over the past few days. Tinnitus has been very active during this same time frame.

4.3 2007/02/03 02:22:42 43.76 -127.70 10.0 276 km WNW of Bandon, OR
4.1 2007/01/31 15:38:46 42.38 -125.43 10.0 84 km W of Gold Beach, OR
4.4 2007/01/31 15:24:47 42.36 -126.71 10.0 187 km WSW of Port Orford, OR

However, it appears to be over:

http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php


regards,

T.Roc

I QUOTE FROM THE BEGINING OF THIS TOPIC:

Following the April 10th entry into earthquakes warning topic,

http://lofi.forum.physorg.com/earthquakes-warning_1544.html,

It is hereby added a new factor and update the:

"RISK FACTORS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT (FOR EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING)"

- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in space (Historic Seismicity)
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in Time (Historic Seismicity)
- Triggering Influence of Big and Major Earthquakes
- Increased Activity Areas at shallow, intermediate and sub-crust depths
- Activity at sub-slab depths (Mantle Response Earthquakes. MRE´s)
- Activity at or near the Liquifaction Zone of the mantle (EDE´s)
- RULE OF TEN (NEW FACTOR)
- Slab Response Earthquakes (SRE´s)
- Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE´s)
- The globe is divided into 16 AREAS are defined for analisys and forecasting.

The RULE of TEN factor, arises from analisys and observation of earthquakes data. It shows (globally) an almost exact correlation between earthquakes of magnitudes >8.0, >7.0 and >6.0 of 1, 10 and 100, that is, for each earthquake >8.0 there are 10 each earthquakes >7.0 and 100 each earthquakes >6.0.
Once earthquake data is applied to each of the areas defined, this RULE of TEN is still valid to most of these areas. Once analized, some of these areas show that in order for the rule to apply, certain magnitude earthquakes are bound to take place in the near future.

Such is the case for, and a (preliminary) forecast is hereby issued, of:

" In the next six coming years, an earthquake of magnitude >8.0 could take place in the following areas:
1) SUMATRA/BORNEO area
2) PAPUA/NEW GUINEA area
3) TONGA/NEW ZEALAND area
4) HIMALAYAS/ANATOLIA area
5) CHINA area
In the next coming year, an earthquake of magnitude >7.0 could take place in the following areas:
6) MEXICO/CARIBBEAN area
7) NORTH AMERICA area
8) SOUTH AMERICA area

The areas as defined and shown in:

http://sismomundo.blogspot.com/2007/01/glo...city-zones.html
of the
http://sismomundo.blogspot.com/

This preliminary forecast will be reviewed and updated monthly.
Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone!

Boy, THAT is one heck of a DETAILED prediction.

You are saying that there will be a big earthquake this year in approx 1/3 the world.



I predict that sometime this year a Catagory 4 Hurricane will form in the Atlantic Basin.

Arthur

adoucette,
1) I am trying to hone a system. Publishing it is one way of being serious about it.
2) Once I get the forecast right for an area, system of coordinates, subduction zone or continental collision zone , WE can ALL work together towards obtaining a more exact location or timing within each system.
3) The reason for numbers 6, 7 and 8 of the forecast is that, although there is a statistical chance of a Big Earthquake (magn. 8.0) in North America, the strike slip type of fault has not produced much larger than 7.6 magnitude earthquakes of late. In the case of South America, there has taken place 3 each magnitude 8.0 in the las 13 years, so I choose a strong seven instead. In any case forecasting a 7.0 magn. for North America equals to forecasting ANOTHER KATRINA in the near future, or sometime this year, which, you do not.
4) Unless my english is not so clear, I am not saying there will be a big earthquake this year in one third of the world. What I am saying is that in the next SIX years there could be a Big earthquake in each one of the mentioned areas. So I suggest we wait six years and check how far from reality we both may be.
What I like best of my forecasting method is that is not done with the help of a very powerful computer or many million dollars!

Greetings, from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone.

Your English is fine, what I find somewhat pointless is that you are making a prediction of an event that we KNOW happens periodically ANYWAY and then your "PREDICTION" covers such a HUGE area and a LONG period of time.

My point is that I can also predict similar global events if I am that NON-SPECIFIC as to time and place and then FURTHER hedge my bets by saying COULD instead of WOULD.

Arthur

adoucette,
OK, thanks.
Rafael

I didn't mean to insult.

I just don't understand why you think there is merit to such a GENERAL prediction, both in location and time.

I mean all those areas have LARGE areas that are known to be prone to rather frequent (than most areas) and often large earthquakes.

Arthur

adoucette,


If we judge RP's statistical methodology the same way that we judge Quantum Mechanics, then, after a few years, we would say that his method is "the most accurate theory in EQ prediction, ever", correct? Just a statement on the value of statistical analysis, in general.

"A wavefunction will collapse somewhere along a wall of electrons, in an experiment lasting a certain amount of time." You would need to study the bigger picture of QM to get the full value of the probabilistic approach.

I would suggest (to you) the same thing for the work of Rafael, including a large body of past events, magnitudes, and geographical patterns. I think that they are better than what is coming out of our tax funded programs, if for no other reason than he is risking the "global" perspective. Most geologists are only concerned with their next check, and the 10 to 100 year "predictions" that keep anyone from saying "why didn't you tell us" sort of thing, and usually limited to their own backyards.

His information could prove very valuable in combination with other prediction methods, which lack a proven method for magnitude estimation.


ciao!

T.Roc