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> The Technological Singularity Is Real, Moore's Law ending in explosion of tech
 
When do you think the tech singularity will be?
Within 10 years [ 4 ]  [26.67%]
Within 20 years [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Within 30 years [ 7 ]  [46.67%]
Much longer [ 3 ]  [20.00%]
Never [ 1 ]  [6.67%]
Total Votes: 15
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El_Machinae
Posted on Nov 4 2011, 03:06 PM


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It's only good if we play things correctly. I worry about automation putting people out of work. Not to be a luddite, but because it causes social disruption. If people are becoming poorer due to automation, we're doing something wrong.

It's something to worry about (instead of poo-poo away), because it's a fairly significant opportunity cost, if things go badly.


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MjolnirPants
Posted on Nov 4 2011, 04:18 PM


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QUOTE (El_Machinae @ Nov 4 2011, 10:06 AM)
If people are becoming poorer due to automation, we're doing something wrong.

In some ways, if people are loosing jobs due to automation, it means we're doing something right. Most automation replaces a few dozen to a few hundred factory workers with a technician to service the machine, a few programmers to program it, a few designers to design it, and a few dozen to a few hundred others. In most cases, it doesn't necessarily reduce the number of jobs, unless it's designed and implemented so well that it doesn't need to be upgraded or serviced for a significant period of time.

Now, I'm not disagreeing with you*. As far as society is concerned, I'd rather see millions of jobs which a robot could do being done by people than a few technical jobs which only people could do.


*Actually, once a certain threshold of automation is reached, it might be in society's best interest to have it, provided some form of socialism exists. This is the theoretical basis for the Federation in Star Trek: The jobs necessary to maintain the economy are all done by automation, allowing the humans and aliens to pursue their interests without worrying about whether their chosen career makes good economic sense. However, I'm sure this sort of society comes with just as many problems as our own, I just don't want to sit here and try to think up what they would all be.


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El_Machinae
Posted on Nov 4 2011, 06:40 PM


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Yeah, we're agreeing. I'd rather all jobs be done by robots, and people only do the work that they feel called to do. But I don't want an increase in human poverty as a result!

I think it's actually something to worry about, because we're going to get better and better at putting people out of jobs with machines.


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MjolnirPants
Posted on Nov 4 2011, 06:48 PM


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QUOTE (El_Machinae @ Nov 4 2011, 01:40 PM)
Yeah, we're agreeing. I'd rather all jobs be done by robots, and people only do the work that they feel called to do. But I don't want an increase in human poverty as a result!

I think it's actually something to worry about, because we're going to get better and better at putting people out of jobs with machines.

Yep. Between post-industrial and post-labor there's something worse than either.


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soundhertz
Posted on Nov 5 2011, 03:49 AM


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At some point, the work ethic and population-wide necessity for it will wane. At some point it is going to become very very inexpensive to live, and live decently. Not out of the question to eventually see Star Trek with a bit of Valinor thrown in. The need for long work hours will wane. All these present day education/specialization/career-for-money life designs that we adhere to the world 'round will change. My grandmother was born in 1896 and waited for the sound of the ice man's horse and wagon every morning. It's happening faster than we think.


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ssong
Posted on Nov 16 2011, 03:47 AM


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ohmy.gif ohmy.gif
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soundhertz
Posted on Nov 24 2011, 03:48 PM


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Why does this forum attract such idiots? Idiots that can't think, can't write, can't even spell. And this is a science forum. Go ahead, idiots, prove you're not. On the Joint, the poster above me would have been banned just for that post...not warned, banned.


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Capracus
Posted on Jan 22 2012, 02:18 AM


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Any news on Ray Kurzwei? Has he pushed back his estimate for the time of the singularity?
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Capracus
Posted on Jan 23 2012, 10:28 AM


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Apparently Paul Allen thinks he should.

QUOTE
But by the end of the century, we believe, we will still be wondering if the singularity is near.
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/27206/
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El_Machinae
Posted on Jan 27 2012, 10:26 PM


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Yeah, Allan's likely correct. We have enough people who're moving away from innovation and into hedonism that the trend just might continue. Too little money into science relative to our incomes.


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oremining
  Posted on Mar 19 2012, 02:09 AM


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we are fast approaching the limits of our use for silicon. I imagine biological computers will be the next breakthrough that will keep us progressing.. something will have to happen in any case in materials.

I think biological processors should be possible.. after all nature has done it we should be able to reproduce it eventually.
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