Sun-earth Connection (sec), Earthquake precursors from the Sun?

[continued from Rafael Peralta's thread Earthquake Predictions Reviewed, to not divert the topic from his intention]


Hi all,


Just an update..


First, let me edit some statements made above, so that they are of a more "Scientific" slant.


"..I postulate is a reconnection event. They happen on the "night side", and follow a group of mid-magnitude quakes. They are always a bit bigger than the largest EQ in the group."

That would be better stated, "they are commensurate with the total energy of the group".


"That side (far) of our magnetopause has far too many variables to contemplate a specific time and location.."

It is not so much the # of variables, but the lack of data available concerning those variables.


OK.

EQ review (I have left out all activity deemed "aftershocks" of the 7.2 ALEUTIAN/ANDREANOF IS.), concerning the statement/prediction, "..another heavy period of EQ activity this week, too. Nearly all of the largest EQs will be in the S. Hemi." [Dec 19 - 26]


2007/12/20 03:06:58 32.63S 71.50W 34 5.3 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2007/12/20 09:48:30 39.41N 33.15E 10 5.7 CENTRAL TURKEY
2007/12/20 07:55:16 38.86S 178.52E 36 6.6 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
2007/12/20 07:42:53 3.49S 100.65E 30 5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/21 03:10:57 -57.727 -141.394 10.0 5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
2007/12/21 22:05:12 26.837 126.783 110.8 5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
2007/12/21 14:17:14 -20.506 -174.453 83.8 5.0 TONGA
2007/12/22 12:26:19 2.088 96.860 35.0 5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 07:11:11 -2.390 139.086 35.0 6.1 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 04:50:38 -17.198 -174.038 35.0 5.1 TONGA
2007/12/22 02:22:07 -23.038 -114.285 10.0 5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION
2007/12/23 13:45:28 -2.755 36.158 10.0 5.3 TANZANIA
2007/12/23 13:10:29 -8.941 123.730 117.9 5.3 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/23 12:56:13 -4.038 39.206 10.0 5.0 KENYA
2007/12/24 21:21:56 -4.240 101.268 56.0 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 20:56:21 -4.464 101.092 35.0 5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 10:43:48 -26.628 -176.100 44.5 5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/25 23:38:55 38.393 142.280 36.7 5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 16:54:28 0.178 97.056 37.9 5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/25 16:20:52 -19.457 -69.050 112.7 5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
2007/12/25 14:04:35 38.502 141.969 49.9 6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 07:52:48 -3.284 142.455 21.8 5.1 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
2007/12/25 01:48:50 -17.649 -178.449 506.7 5.0 FIJI REGION
2007/12/26 23:47:12 39.523 33.115 10.0 5.3 CENTRAL TURKEY 2007/12/26 23:40:53 -22.336 -68.309 96.9 5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2007/12/26 17:12:46 -5.339 131.207 22.3 5.5 BANDA SEA
2007/12/26 05:06:08 -22.049 -176.441 154.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/26 04:45:33 40.356 73.031 46.3 5.3 KYRGYZSTAN
2007/12/26 04:14:21 -8.769 157.572 10.0 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
2007/12/27 11:44:29 -63.162 149.931 10.0 5.1 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION


The BOLD latitudes are the quakes that fell in the North Hemi.

The BOLD locations (BALLENY ISLANDS REGION, PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE) are evidence supporting the statement, "..the same coronal structure is still exists, albeit further south." You will find that these extremes are lower than the extremes 1 month ago, because (postulated) of the said change in position of the coronal structure, over the period of the last Solar rotation.


So, (rating myself) I think that that was a good weekly forecast.


Just because of the strong correlation (not because I know anything about the weather), I'll include some follow-up to the statement," IE. for the next several days, we should be getting cooler that normal temps in the S. hemisphere; and look for another tropical storm(s) to develop. (similar to the last week of Nov)".

[cruising the news on the internet]

(Reuters) Dec 25 "..All three of Mexico's main oil-exporting ports shut on Sunday due to a storm. Two of the ports, Cayo Arcas and Coatzacoalcos, reopened on Monday while the third, Dos Bocas, reopened early on Tuesday after the two-day closure. "

(BERNAMA.com ) Flooding in Pahang, Johor Malaysia

(Yahoo.com news) Heavy rains this last week lead to landslides in central Java, Indonesia on the 26th.

(Yahoo.com / India)
December 22
"..rain prevented a single ball from being bowled on the final day of the warm-up match against Victoria" (Melbourne, Australia)

December 23
"..runners brave chilly weather to take part in Delhi marathon" (New Delhi, India)

and, from personal observation here in Chile, definitely cooler here too, and some (welcome) rain.


For "related interest": twice before, I have come across an "anomaly" while compiling EQ data like this one. Sometimes, man inadvertently builds "gravitational and/or shock wave detectors" in the form of very poorly, and over-limit, constructed buildings, and we get a "sudden, unexplained" collapse. For what it's worth, I find them to be in proximity to EQ activity.


2 EQ's on Dec 23, a 5.0 in Kenya, and a 5.3 in Tanzania

2 EQ's on Dec 26, a 4.9 and a 5.3 in Central Turkey


between them, lies Alexandria, Egypt.


On Dec 24, we had "the collapse of a 12-storey residential building in Egypt's Mediterranean city of Alexandria".

"On Tuesday (25th), also in Alexandria, at least five people were injured when a building partially collapsed, security sources said."
(Reuters)



regards,

T.Roc


PS. This thread also has roots in several other threads, so that you can follow it from the beginning, if interested. earthquakes warning , IS EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION ALIVE?


This post has been edited by TRoc on Dec 27 2007, 09:01 PM

Do GRB's affect earthquakes?

That's a good question, PJ. (and well worded)

If you has said "caused", I would say "no". There is no known, direct link.

However, saying "affect" forces me to say "yes"; though nothing "in the books" as of yet.


Because I believe EQ's to be a non-linear dynamic (with SEC), with several steps involved, "cause" might be biting off too much.


It would not be the GRB itself (defined as the gamma rays & following "light" that we see), but rather, the postulated gravity wave that would go along with the cause of the GRB. (and, of course, they have to be "aimed" at Earth)


I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.


I can link some interesting papers on this, and talk further when I have more time. Just wanted to get an answer out there. Also, to point out that I spend zero time monitoring GRB's, nor do I have any specific energy transfer mechanism worked out. I have no specific way to predict the magnitude of a quake, other than the occasional "educated guess", when pointing out "fault trends", where EQ's in one region are mirrored in another (separate) region. I do believe that this will be able to be performed "on the ground", after a specific location is identified.


The main thrust of this developing theory, is predicting the time and location of EQ's, from 2 to 4 days in advance, based on approximations derived from the extent and "shape" of coronal holes, solar wind speed, and a "lensing" performed by our (fluctuating) magnetopause. There are other factors as well, SW density, Alfven speed, Mach, IMF azimuth, magnetograms, etc. , but that gives the over-all idea.


Not all EQ's will have this as the cause; there are aftershock groups, and re-connection shocks as well. My premise is that the Earth does not jump out of equilibrium on its' own; it is brought out of equilibrium by energy from the Sun (or elsewhere), and then dissipates back to a steady state. Note that the "steady state" includes a steady flow of smaller EQ's.


There are many ideas/theories concerning this data, but none that I'm aware of, are going PAST the "biosphere" as pre-cursor, and looking for the CAUSE of those EM/Seismic pre-cursors. I can be right, without (most of) those ideas being wrong. This is wide open, and full of little understood areas, new branch of Physics. It's any body's game right now, and that is exciting.



regards,

Thomas Roccetta



This post has been edited by TRoc on Dec 28 2007, 03:55 AM

That does sound a bit scary.

Thank you very much for your reply. More specifically now, could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally? I ask since it's currently one of my personal thought experiments.

Thank you,

PJ Parent

P.S. (re: rapid oscillation in our magnetopause) superluminal wavehock of the supermetallic core... rogues...



Thanks for the crash course on EQ's. It is very amazing and very interesting.





This post has been edited by PJParent001 on Dec 28 2007, 06:35 AM

I can imagine a rogue gravitywave affecting ocean tides and tectonic plates along with one's sense of gravity.

Hi all,


PJ, just keep in mind that I said, "nothing "in the books" as of yet"; I'm not trying to set myself up there, but trying to make sure that readers will not go away saying, "Thanks for the crash course on EQ's".


I'm not picking on you, but we need to be clear on this. I agree with the mind-set of many on the forum, that are "peeved" about pet theories being promoted as "truth". As long as the proper "disclosures" are made, then we are being scientific. This is a process, and for the thread itself, I am doing this "open book" in the hopes that some of these young guns can put their new skills to new, unanswered, real-world problems. My cart is full, and I am "old & in the way", as far as the new math is concerned.


What I am going to do, as time permits, is post some of my "case studies", so that they can be reviewed by a large audience. This is "cyber publishing"; according to the laws of copyright, this thread is "publishing". As this is, AFAIK, new work and theory, then I would ask that the proper reference be made (why I put my full name in the last post). For the rest of it, as usual in Science, there is much more work to be done, and that means opportunity for someone else.


Also as time permits, I will do "weekly forecasts" for EQ activity, and when time (and simple coronal structures) permit, do more specific, time and location predictions. As has been pointed out to me by Rafael Peralta, and Trippy, without being able to predict magnitude, along with very accurate predictions, there isn't much point in "going public" with any warnings; I agree. I do feel, however, (and will give more details) that on the ground, in the vicinity of an impending quake, that a method can be developed to determine magnitude. That is the importance of giving a 3 day, time and location prediction: to get the equipment in place. Right now, there are only a few places in the World with the equipment permanently installed. Much along the lines of flying dog teams into certain disasters to sniff for survivors, a team could be assembled with the proper devices. After some success, EQ prone areas would be prompted to get their own, permanent equipment.



To your question, if I understand it correctly, "could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally", you are asking if the GRB happens before, and not with the EQ? The answer is yes. There are great distances to be covered, and a great amount of time; necessarily, the GRB would happen before the EQ.. probably by thousands of years! Of course, this is "nothing" on the scale of the Universe, but you can see why this might be left "off the table", in a linear approximation~theory.


Even "rogue waves" were thought to be "sailor's myths", until fairly recent times. Prevailing theory (linear) predicted that they should occur but once every 10,000 years. In 1980, an oil freighter traveling in S. African waters, reported such a wave; a photo shows what appears to be a wave on the order of the 85 ft masts of the ship. In 1995, the RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 reported surviving an encounter with a 95ft rogue wave. [1]


These reports inspired precise measurements by satellite based lasers, and after which, changed the prevailing theory. "..observations imply that a handful of these waves is occurring at every moment somewhere on the ocean". "Recently, scientists from Sweden and Germany, Padma Shukla et al., have presented the first analysis and simulation of its kind for the instability of nonlinear waves interacting in deep water. " "Using the Schrodinger equations, the scientists studied the impact of different wave speeds and different angles at which two waves intersect. The team found that for a certain, relatively small angle, a new instability arises with a "maximum growth rate that is more than twice as large as the ones for the single wave cases," they report. Two waves meeting at such an angle would escape normal stabilizing effects and exhibit constructive interference that would result in a freak wave. Strong currents can help further by "focusing" waves, continually building them up to giant sizes. " [quotes, and source 1 : Physorg.com "New theory (and old equations) may explain causes of ship-sinking freak waves" 09/2006]


Of course, we know that water waves are different from other waves, but this seems to be a Fundamental principle for all waves. The relatively small angle of intersecting waves, of different speeds, giving rise to a Resonance phenomenon. I have postulated elsewhere, this same methodology for light, separated by slits, or other homogeneous medium (ie crystalline), re-forming (interfering) the fundamental frequency (energy conservation), while undergoing an increase in "intensity/amplitude" (as well as exhibiting dark fringe "beats"). Both water and light can exhibit self-reinforcing boundary conditions: the soliton wave (as well as an "Airy Packet" - Berry, Balazs -1978).


I have worked this out, in an "inverse method", that is, for waves of slightly differing frequencies, separated by a very small time. They too intersect at small angles, giving rise to beats that are independent of the source. These form "caustics", shaping the envelope of the interacting frequencies so that they do not "spread". In Music, this is the "chord": an envelope of interacting frequencies that arrives with the Fundamental frequency "revived" by the small angle intersections that produce Resonance (higher amplitude). So, none of the above is "standard" theory, and should be noted as such. Other than working out a mathematical derivation of a chord, nothing that I'm doing is "original". I am just generalizing; piecing together data from specialists, who would not otherwise be communicating/mixing their ideas to form the larger picture.


Back to these CIR's (co-rotating interacting regions). I am saying that a GRB caused gravity wave is a special case, for the daily interaction of the Solar wind with the Earth's magnetopause. Both have the effect of "ringing" our bell. The timing of these interactions should play the large role in determining the resonant transfer of energy into the mass of the Earth. Any "velocity modulation", like the CIR, has a forward shock, and a rear shock wave associated. This bubble, or envelope, can be inferred by monitoring the conditions of near-Earth space.


Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.

Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)

What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.



regards,

T.Roc


This post has been edited by TRoc on Dec 28 2007, 04:47 PM

I'm not sure I understand the point of these last few paragraphs. Are you suggesting that people should, on a relatively frequent basis when a coronal hole is present, go to your link and manually write down the data from the dials and then type that into some other document?

barakn,


I'm saying that an organized "team" could do this. It wouldn't be "random people". There would hopefully be something like an organized "shift" for observation/recording. This Google-Doc would be able to be viewed by all, real-time, including changes made, notes, etc. "Volunteers" could be contacted to see if available for a particular slot.


The way I record this now, is to simply drag the cursor across the whole set of dials, and copy/paste it to a word doc, which I start for a particular CH, categorized by date. This doc also has several pics of the CH itself, as well as the relative position/rotation of the Earth. The crucial time is the expected arrival time, which can vary by ~12hrs, depending on the average SW speed. If I miss this time, for all practical purposes, it's gone.


So, it is a little work, but no manual writing or copying. Just click, ctrl-c, click, ctrl-v. That's about it. The point is, that I'm missing vast chunks of data while I am asleep, or doing anything else. The dials are a huge shortcut, compared to requesting access to the raw data, and compiling/computing manually. It can't be done in 45 min, that's for sure!


Again, this could all be "automated", and someday, hopefully, it will. But for now, this is it: private research by "backyard astronomers"and "weekend warriors". But look at their success!


ciao,

T.Roc



This post has been edited by TRoc on Dec 28 2007, 06:41 PM

TRoc,

Maybe I'm missing something here, but why couldn't you just get the data from here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html

It would take a far better scripter than I to pull the data from the text files automatically. There's also the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files, but if someone could find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data.

Oh, and here's a link to some plots of the data:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html

Hi barakn,


It's more me and my quirks, I think.


There are several "personal" reasons; my eyesight is declining, and the Doc says it's from too much reading on the monitor. So I try to stay away from bulk "text" reading. I also am a "visual" mentality, and am quite familiar with the gages (their color scheme gives an extra "dimension") already.


The others, you mentioned: ".. the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files". "..find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data", which is just what they are doing at Rice. If it's already being done...


Thanks for the links, though. I would swear that when I looked for that data a few months ago, it was not there; but the second one also looks familiar, so I don't know. I have a bad habit of "crashing" my browser from having too many windows open, and from overloading Adobe with papers. So, sometimes I lose a couple of hours of research, and any links, or papers that I haven't saved. Do you know if it goes back before October? I couldn't find that.


I do use others too:

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm

http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2.../29/index.shtml

http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sxibr...9&hr1=19&mn1=01

http://www.raben.com/maps/

http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
(not working right now)



ciao,

T.Roc

TRoc,

My eyes are also getting a little .

My one link contains only the last month's worth of 1 and 5 minute data (it's Level 1 or 'Raw' data at that, not cleaned up). A year's worth of hourly data is here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html

Archival level 2 data going all the way back to the beginning of ACE can be found here:

http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html

Hi all,


Very nice, barakn; thanks a lot!




This helps reviewing past events considerably.


ciao,

T.Roc

Hi all,


A news item: Earthquake 'memory' could spur aftershocks
http://www.physorg.com/news118590259.html

I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"


I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.

Once again, we find someone "brave" enough to question, and the consensus having the (incorrect) answer, before the experimental results. Science is like that.


As I have pondered, we have a definite relationship to EQ and low frequency pre-cursors. This is quickly becoming "main-stream". We also have the ability for storage and memory to take place in the fault lines themselves. Current theory does not have an answer for where EQ energy comes from. So, I can not say that this evidence is against current theory, only that it is able to support the one that I am advancing. The reason I state that there is no good answer for "where from", is that we know less about the interior of the Earth than we do the workings of the Sun, which is far from complete. There is no agreement, and recent suggestions to change the standing idea, of what exactly is at the core of our Planet. We can not even be sure, at this time, whether the Earth actually generates its' own magnetic field, or if this is being done by the Sun.


Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".


Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)

regards,

T.Roc


This post has been edited by TRoc on Jan 3 2008, 08:48 PM

Hi Troc

Curious if the resonance from the earthquakes (I'm not saying this right, but I don't have time) had anything to do with the volcano? I know the volcano and earthquakes are linked, but could the resonance move magma too? (Do I make sense? Or am I in too much of a hurry?)

"THEY",

I definitely think volcanoes provide another mechanism for dissipation of the Earth's internal energy, much like earthquakes. Seismic resonances as a result of earthquakes could logically trigger magma movement, specifically outward through the crust... the two are undeniably linked.

But TRoc probably knows best