earthquakes warning, Full story at http://www.physorg.com/news3647.html

http://www.physorg.com/news3647.html

In the same line of earthquakes warning, it is worthy of note the overall increase in number and magnitudes that events in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)have shown following the Sumatra Boxing Day Big Earthquake and its companion last week. As stated before, it is common for a Big Earthquake (> 8.0 Mgn)to be followed by one at least Major Eartquake (>7.0 mgn). In the Sumatra case, the 9.3 Mw was followed by an 8.7 Mw, which should be fit. What remains to be seen is the following 8.0, 7.8, etc.. which should take place in the area in the next months, up to two years at least.
As the whole Earth has been ringing since boxing day, we have seen here in the NPSZ an increase in activity, magnitudes, two or three swarms and two very odd tremors in the amazon.We can expect, therefore, that as the NPSZ accounts for about 1/8th of global seismicity, some of the Major Earthquakes still misssing this year will take place in South America.
On the same hand, we can expect to see some Big or Major Earthquakes in the other "branches" of global seismicity, namely the Himalayan way to Anatolia and the Philipines way to Alaska. If this should happen accordingly, it will take no time for everybody to realize that global seismicity is not "chaotic" but "related".

I remember the earthquakes in Laoag. They remided me of the ones on the Queen Charlottes -- small, but fairly frequent... I viewed them as being relatively benign; a form of stress relief. Of course, though, there was 1982... and; if that Abra restraining bend ever lets go, well...! Sayang.

Further to the quoted entry, it has now taken place two new major earthquakes, a 7.9 Mw magnitud 100 Kms deep major earthquake on the western side of the Andes Mountains in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)and a 7.0 Mw magnitud 10 Km deep major earthquake off the coast of California.

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E



FILE CREATED: Wed Jun 15 08:14:16 2005
Global Search Earthquakes= 4
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2005 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 06/Day: 13
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE-W 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwGS 3C M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS 5F M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.70 MwHRV .C M 3TS....
PDE-Q 2005 06 13 224433.31 -19.90 -69.12 108 7.90 MwGS .. . .......

These new major earthquakes add up to the two major earthquakes that took place in the "Australian Brach (Tonga) region". The NPSZ earthquake adds more tension to the long time "locking" coast line seismic gap between the cities of Arica and Antofagasta, while the California earthquake could be a sign of further activity in the California Coast Line-Continent.
Regards,
Rafael Peralta

Great work Rafael !


I was in the unique position to personally experience both (7.9 Tarapaca & 7.2 N.Cal) earthquakes, having left Santiago the evening of the 13th, and ariving in Oakland on the afternoon of the 14th. I have a version of tinnitus that causes the perception of sound (actually a beat frequency caused by the slight tuning differences of left and right ear) when the precursor scalar waves of an earthquake are being generated. In the case of the magnitude and my proximity to the Tarapaca quake, I felt a pulsating pressure variation in my lower legs about 6 hours prior to the quake, and was able to predict the impending quake to my fiance'. Neeless to say, these type of personal experiences have pushed me to study seismic wave phenomena for many years now.

I would like your opinion on the following symmetrical pattern:

Look at the "anticenter" of the 9.0 Sumatra quake (opposing side of planet, past the shadow zone of p-wave direction), and the anticenter of the 7.9 Tapaca quake. The neic.usgs.gov site has nice maps of this; click on the quakes mentioned above, and then click the link to "theoretical p-wave travel times".

Now add the fact that the Sumatra quake happened the week after winter solstice and the Tarapaca quake ocurred a week before the winter soltice (S.Hemisphere).
[I won't go into the angular intersection of our magnetic field with extra-terrestial based radiations]

Given the follow-up Sumatra quake of 8.7 on 28 march 2005, what do you think of the possibility of a quake happening near Lima in the latter part of September of this year, in the neighborhood of 7.4?


TRoc

Troc,
I had to look at the map in order to get an answer to your question.
1.- The antipode to the Aceh earthquake, is a point just south of the equator, off the coast of Ecuador. There was a swarm which produced 4 strong earthquakes (magnitud > 6.0) in the month after the Aceh quake. Further strong earthquakes have occurred there lately. A major earthquake there is in the forecast below which dates from the year 2002, for which the Aceh quake could be a triggering influence now, hence the swarm.
2.- The antipode to the Tarapaca earthquake, is a point near the coast in Pakistan.
Not really near Sumatra. It is nearer to the 2001 India Big earthquake.
3.- The Solstice relationship you point out is probably of mistic interest only, as dates or solar positions are of no consequence as yet, although many people have observed planetary relations, even navy commodores of old.
4.- As to your special sensory perception, I believe it is possible that it might work as you say. I have an open mind about that. Actually and this means no personal offence or comparison, but yet another extra sensory perception, the chinese and other peoples believe animals can "feel" the oncoming of an earthquake, with unrest, howling, crowing, or laying down attitudes. On the day of the Tarapaca earthquake as I picked up two workers from the field in the valley from Arica, they told me "how roosters made a loud chorus all around the farms in the mid day hours, that is some six hours before the onset of the mainshock and about the same time you felt it. Extrange but very possible.
5.- As to the possibility of a 7.4 Mw earthquake near Lima, Peru in the very near future, yes, thare is a very high probability of that occurring, as the forecast for a landlocked nortrhern Peru is a fact.

The above mentioned forecast follows, much regards

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR BIG AND MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AT THE NAZCA PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE.

Further to the conclusions reached in "Understanding Earthquakes in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone" sent on 28th August 2002, the "Statistical Analysis Report" and the "Aftershock Analysis Report and Update of the Arequipa earthquake of June 23rd 2001" sent in the years 2003 and 2004 to AGU, USGS and Journal of Seismology, hereby follows this resume on the claims, results and new findings on the theme.

1. It was noticed and noted in the year 2000, that in the four months following Major earthquake 2000 04 23, a 7.0 Mw , 608 Km deep event, there occurred several earthquakes that could be considered as Remote Triggered Seismicity. See Table 1.
2. Triggering influence extended North West and South West from this source. North West reached site of future rupture in 100 days (2000 08 03)and triggered Major Earthquake on 2000 05 12 and Strong Earthquake on 2000 11 29. South West reached as far as the Peru-Chile Trench on 2000 12 20 and RTS earthquake 2000 06 16 triggered three Strong Earthquakes on 2001 01 07, 2001 03 15 and 2001 04 09, in Central Chile.
3. Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 triggered over 270 aftershocks, including Slab, Crust and Mantle response earthquakes. (See Map Nª 1)
4. There seems to be a connection between this rupture on the Coast Line and a location on the eastern rise of the Andes mountains, wich is some 800 Kms away. ( 1998 05 22 and 2001 07 04 CRE`s)
5. Triggering influence of Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 seems to end with RTS on 2003 03 28.
6. Strong earthquake on 2002 04 01 starts a new sequence in Central Chile that turns five strong earthquakes in 80 days. The area is again shaken on 2003 06 20, a 6.80 Mw 33 Km deep earthquake.
7. 2003 07 27, a 6.00 Mw, 345 Km deep is a very deep earthquake north of Increased Activity Deep Area. 2004 03 17 turns a 289 Km deep 6.1 Mw earthquake. Both these depths are uncommon.
8. 2004 05 03 and 2004 06 15 are two strong earthquakes just north of South West RTS limit of 2000 12 20 event. 2004 08 27 and 2004 09 07 are two strong CRE`s on eastern rise of Andes Mountains.
9. 2004 11 12, 2005 03 21 and 2005 03 21 are three strong Extra Deep Earthquakes (EDE`s) wihch could be the source of future Remote Triggered Seismicity.
10. Most likely areas to be triggered are seismic gaps North and South of Big Earthquakes 2001 06 23 and 1995 07 30,(Nazca, Iquique, Tocopilla, Taltal, Chañaral), the areas South of San Antonio- North of Concepcion ( Vichuquén, Cauquenes) and the area South of Puerto Saavedra.
11. The area off the Coast of Ecuador, which is in itself under the triggering influence of Strong EDE ´s of 2002 10 12, 2003 04 27 and Major EDE of 2003 06 20, was affected by a swarm of four strong earthquakes in seven days (Post Big Sumatra Earthquake period) and still shows signs of activity. During this post Big (Sumatra, 2004 12 26) earthquake, two "weird" (uncommon) earthquakes occurred in the Amazon and Matto Grosso area on 2005 02 08 and 2005 03 23. It is common practice to look for areas first affected by Big Earthquakes, therefore due observation will be made of earthquakes following the recent 8.7 Mw Big Earthquake (RTS) of Sumatra on 2005 03 28.


In the above account and Table 1 many earthquakes have been omitted on purpose and although the relation in between the mentioned ones remains, the fact is that most of the Risk Areas signaled in the previous reports have been affcted by some strong activity and the ones that have not, they remain to be seen. Table 2 shows activity moved North and South to date.


RISK FACTORS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT ARE :

- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in space (Historic Seismicity)
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in Time (Historic Seismicity)
- Triggering Influence of Big and Major Earthquakes
- Increased Activity Areas at shallow, intermediate and sub-crust depths
- Activity at sub-slab depths (Mantle Response Earthquakes. MRE´s)
- Activity at or near the Liquifaction Zone of the mantle (EDE´s)
- Inlfuence transference cycles to and from the Liquifaction Zone
- Mantle Response Earthquakes (MRE´s)
- Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE´s)

Sent on this day of April 5th 2005.

Rafael Peralta
peraltaquake@hotmail.com
Arica, CHILE


TABLE 1

2000 04 23 092723.32 28.31 S 62.99 W 608 Km 7.00 Mw Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE)
2000 04 23 124854.30 28.39 S 62.95 W 622 Km 4.50 mb Aftershock
2000 04 23 170117.47 28.38 S 62.94 W 609 Km 6.10 Mw Aftershock
2000 04 24 103217.20 17.98 S 70.63 W 55 Km 5.10 mb First to react Slab Response Earthquake (SRE)
2000 04 25 002318.01 13.27 S 74.96 W 107 Km 5.10 mb SRE
2000 04 29 045651.90 20.98 S 67.45 W 181 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 174246.72 17.60 S 69.55 W 154 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 195221.62 6.41 S 77.06 W 124 Km 5.70 mb SRE
2000 04 30 053125.87 27.02 S 66.04 W 35 Km 5.10 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 01 001955.62 24.11 S 66.68 W 207 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 03 175235.60 17.59 S 69.42 W 148 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 07 074403.33 17.09 S 64.91 W 36 Km 4.40 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 09 004540.07 25.96 S 69.91 W 57 Km 5.20 mb SRE
2000 05 09 020241.22 18.28 S 73.36 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2000 05 09 110237.41 12.91 S 76.64 W 59 Km 4.60 mb SRE
2000 05 12 115848.14 27.75 S 70.47 W 75 Km 4.70 mb SRE
2000 05 12 184318.12 23.55 S 66.45 W 225 Km 7.20 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)

2000 06 16 075535.39 33.88 S 70.09 W 120 Km 6.50 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)

2000 07 13 052518.37 16.67 S 71.39 W 37 Km 5.00 mb

2000 08 03 192210.88 17.54 S 71.97 W 33 Km 5.90 Mw Precursory sequence start
2000 08 03 192555.80 17.68 S 71.96 W 33 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 03 222145.69 17.54 S 71.87 W 80 Km 4.80 mb Mantle Response Earthquake
2000 08 11 173114.74 17.72 S 70.20 W 56 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 18 132103.07 19.14 S 70.18 W 69 Km 5.40 mb Across bay from future rupture
2000 08 22 111750.38 17.43 S 71.93 W 79 Km 4.60 mb Precursory sequence end

2000 09 09 111520.01 17.07 S 70.71 W 116 Km 4.70 mb
2000 09 27 050247.97 16.55 S 72.72 W 46 Km 5.10 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake

2000 11 27 105428.05 24.45 S 69.07 W 57 Km 5.00 mb
2000 11 29 102514.14 24.50 S 70.55 W 58 Km 6.40 Mw Mantle Response Earthquake

2000 12 20 112356.93 39.06 S 74.43 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw Southernmost RTS (End)

2001 01 12 104739.52 15.58 S 74.71 W 33 Km 5.40 Ms North of future rupture
2001 01 15 115329.59 15.44 S 74.90 W 33 Km 5.20 Ms North of future rupture
2001 02 22 200620.46 16.70 S 72.97 W 33 Km 5.00 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake

2001 03 22 091740.40 16.44 S 72.42 W 33 Km 4.40 mb Near future rupture
2001 03 22 180154.67 16.06 S 72.07 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Near future rupture

2001 04 04 064528.29 18.97 S 68.19 W 33 Km 4.80 mb CRE
2001 04 17 014211.14 20.76 S 70.47 W 33 Km 5.10 mb
2001 05 05 123740.29 18.00 S 73.71 W 33 Km 4.70 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2001 05 05 152657.46 16.79 S 69.50 W 196 Km 4.80 mb
2001 05 08 184152.77 17.41 S 69.00 W 117 Km 4.70 mb
2001 05 18 013143.09 17.38 S 69.78 W 33 Km 4.60 mb CRE
2001 05 22 203811.73 15.44 S 70.62 W 197 Km 4.50 mb
2001 05 24 003909.04 20.14 S 67.11 W 205 Km 5.40 Mw
2001 05 28 064128.51 16.13 S 73.92 W 52 Km 4.90 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake

2001 06 15 131601.39 18.26 S 70.44 W 53 Km 4.90 mb South of future rupture

2001 06 23 203314.13 16.26 S 73.64 W 33 Km 8.40 Mw Big Earthquake
2001 06 23 212735.71 17.18 S 72.64 W 33 Km 6.10 mb Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 26 041831.60 17.75 S 71.65 W 33 Km 6.70 Mw Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 29 183551.18 19.52 S 66.25 W 273 Km 6.10 Mw Deep SRE, RTS
2001 07 04 120903.47 17.00 S 65.71 W 33 Km 6.20 Mw CRE, RTS
2001 07 05 135349.73 16.09 S 73.99 W 62 Km 6.60 Mw MRE
2001 07 07 095843.83 17.45 S 72.04 W 33 Km 7.60 Mw Major Earthquake
2001 07 12 071504.94 17.43 S 66.04 W 33 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2001 07 24 050009.05 19.54 S 69.25 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2001 08 28 065609.97 21.72 S 70.11 W 65 Km 5.90 mb MRE
2001 10 26 185956.71 14.77 S 70.50 W 212 Km 5.80 Mw Deep SRE

2002 03 28 045621.73 21.66 S 68.33 W 125 Km 6.50 Mw SRE (End of RTS`s)



TABLE 2

2002 03 28 045622.40 21.66S 68.33W 125 Km 6.50 Mw Last RTS from Table 1
2002 04 01 195932.48 29.67S 71.38W 71 Km 6.40 Mw First strong event after a year
2002 04 18 160836.78 27,53S 70.59W 62 Km 6.70 Mw
2002 05 23 155215.28 30.75S 71.20W 52 Km 6.00 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 05 28 040422.53 28.94S 66.80W 22 Km 6.00 Mb CRE
2002 06 18 135622.83 30.81S 71.12W 54 Km 6.60 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 09 24 035722.28 31.52S 69.20W 119 Km 6.30 Mw SRE
2002 10 12 200911.46 8.30S 71.74W 534 Km 6.90 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 01 07 005451.56 33.76S 70.05W 110 Km 6.00 Mb SRE
2003 04 27 225744.84 8.19S 71.59W 559 Km 6.00 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 03 235802.74 17.36S 72.81W 33 Km 6.00 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 06 20 061938.91 7.61S 71.72W 558 Km 7.10 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 20 133041.64 30.61S 71.64W 33 Km 6.80 Ms Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2003 07 27 114127.05 20.13S 65.18W 345 Km 6.00 Mw VDE, SRE
2003 08 26 211135.70 17.16S 70.67W 31 Km 5.80 Mb At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 09 17 213447.17 21.47S 68.32W 127 Km 5.90 Mb At 2002 03 28 location
2003 12 10 122551.54 27.96S 71.32W 33 Km 5.80 Mw At sea from 2002 04 18
2004 01 23 050030.64 23.03S 69.88W 71 Km 5.90 Mw
2004 01 27 160037.91 17.81S 71.05W 57 Km 5.80 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2004 02 04 051844.82 26.13S 63.46W 558 Km 5.80 Mw EDE
2004 03 17 032107.91 21.12S 65.59W 289 Km 6.10 Mw VDE, SRE
2004 03 22 042258.45 22.94S 64.36W 16 Km 5.80 Mw CRE
2004 05 03 043650.04 37.69S 73.41W 21 Km 6.60 Mw At southern sector
2004 06 15 111631.50 38.85S 73.15W 37 Km 6.10 Mw At southern sector
2004 08 27 004354.54 27.42S 70.81W 30 Km 5.90 Mw Near 2002 04 18
2004 08 28 134127.91 34.93S 70.39W 1 Km 6.50 Mw CRE
2004 09 07 115306.11 28.57S 65.84W 22 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2004 09 28 213218.67 15.69S 74.53W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 11 12 063616.76 26.70S 63.32W 568 Km 6.10 Mw EDE
2004 12 08 060355.59 30.84S 71.22W 44 Km 5.80 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2004 12 18 175722.97 16.20S 73.85W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 12 26 9.30 Mw GRAN SISMO DE SUMATRA
2005 01 21 134514.05 1.13S 80.83W 10 Km 6.00 Mw Start of swarm at northern sector
2005 01 22 025707.25 22.25S 63.64W 526 Km 5.20Mw EDE
2005 01 24 232324.47 1.39S 80.79W 7 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 092617.79 1.19S 81.20W 10 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 154645.27 1.09S 81.16W 10 Km 6.20 Mw At northern sector
2005 02 08 180422.44 2.22S 63.62W 18 Km 4.40 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 01 072405.63 31.43S 71.69W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At coast line
2005 03 21 122354.35 24.91S 63.40W 579 Km 6.90 Mw EDE
2005 03 21 124312.51 24.66S 63.45W 569 Km 6.40 Mw EDE
2005 03 13 203859.91 32.59S 71.68W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At Coast Line
2005 03 14 124344.41 28.57S 65.93W 23 Km 5.60 MD CRE
2005 03 19 142330.04 27.78S 71.15W 24 Km 5.00 Mb At sea
2005 03 23 211200.xx 11.60S 56.78W 10 Km 5.10 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 29 163820.10 33.71S 72.28W 34 Km 5.10 Mb MRE at sea
2005 03 31 163340.74 23.51S 64.53W 35 Km 5.10 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215052.36 23.27S 64.38W 10 Km 4.90 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215235.62 22.94S 64.65W 10 Km 5.20 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 222208.54 23.49S 64.14W 10 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2005 04 06 104604.10 35.35S 70.95W 117Km 6.00 Mb SRE near site of CRE 2004 08 28
2005 04 10 174139.98 7.59S 76.23W 134 Km 5.60 Mw SRE
2005 04 11 145406.66 7.28S 77.83W 133 Km 6.20 Mw SRE
2005 04 13 092527.65 33.13S 72.84W 30 Km 5.60 Mw MRE at sea, at Trench
2005 04 16 224116.74 17.38S 69.46W 117 Km 5.80 mb SRE
2005 04 20 104047.25 17.56S 71.28W 28 Km 5.20 mb CRE
or MRE, depth not definitive

Then, there follows several strong earthquakes and the Tarapaca Major earthquake. R. Peralta, June 19 2005.

Rafael,


Yes, not quite antipodal, so I used "anticenter" as a generality. Mostly I was looking at the circular area past the shadow zone where there is actually some overlaps of p-wave vectors having been refracted in the outer core. (146 - 158 deg.) I didn't do the math to see how close the that area the Tarapacan quake was, just looked inside that area. It was the symmetrical proximity combined with the seasonal symmetry that made me ponder. All around the pacific plate is very active, first the Asian side, now the Americas.

The next thing is the volcanic activity. During the 2 weeks prior, of course Colima, Mexico (which is roughly centered between the 2 quakes I mentioned above), and Anatahan, Mariana Islands; and Bagana & Ulawun, Papua New Guinea; and Barren Island, India; and Dukono, Indonesia; and Fuego & Pacaya & Santa Maria', Guatemala; and Galeras, Columbia; and Karymsky & Shiveluch, Russia; and Kilauea, Hawaii; and Reventador, Equador; Sakura-Hima & Suwanose-Jima, Japan; and Soufriere Hills, W. Indies; and St. Helens, Washington ALL reported new/increased/or peak activity. The ring of fire is HOT. Should these be noted as stage II precursor (dilatency) / ground uplift? I think that is partially the cause, along with the p-wave velocity and electrical resistivity drops, that cause my sensations. Interestingly, I could feel the opposite spin (from vertigo/ear pressure imbalance) when I was down there!

I think around June 22-24, we will see some larger volcanic activity (definately St. Helens), including some "green" codes moving to "yellow" (Long Valley Caldera), and some yellows moving to orange. What information do you have on Cerro Hudson and Quizapu' in Chile?


TRoc

THANKS GUYS!!!! I live in the shadow of Mt St Helens!

I do agree with you though, and was actually talking about this recently. With all the activity in the Pacific Rim plate, the eastern portion (the Americas) I also believe will see more earthquake and volcanic activity over the next few years (or decade). The plate seems to have been moving more on the western side of the plate than the eastern side, and needs to "equalize" or reduce stress or however you want to look at it.

I also recently saw a film that talked about a scientist who is getting really good at predicting earthquakes in Turkey. I am sorry, I don't remember his name, but I wonder if you have researched his work?

Good luck to you in your predictions, science is actually getting to the point where predictions can be made without the "predictor" being called a lunatic... We need people like you studying the past so that the future predictions can save lives.

(BTW, Mt St Helens is beautiful today, without even a puff of steam... calm before the storm? Or is it really not her turn?)

--Ashless in Seattle

They, & their kind,


I wouldn't worry too much if you haven't had problems with the ongoing activity there. (and remember, I am just an amature; and as you said, predictions are still for non-paid & lunatics).

>although Anatahen went off to a "peak" height last night<


As for the incoming "stuff" that I believe is connected and mentioned before. I've gathered it all up where it is as convenient as possible here. These are just small graphs, and should load quickly.


NOAA

circa 6-13-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...13_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050613_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050613_xray.gif

circa 6-17-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...17_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050617_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050617_xray.gif


USGS

Long valley, CA.
1. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_cw3.html
2. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt.html
combined: http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt_cw3.html


TRoc

Not being in the field, I still have an opinion that probably is easy to shoot down. Here it goes, the plates are just that, plates, and if one would move a plate on a table, the left side of the plate would move with the right side. Isn't it logical to expect an major earthquake directly opposite of the Kuril Island earthquake. Of course the plate may be broken and only the broken part will move. Sorry to be so simplistic <_<

Exactly. What would be the speed for this disturbance to cross Pacific? And in which place on US West coast will it strike?

Hi, all
Guest_linda: you are right about the plate analogy. In the case of tectonic plates however, analisys shows me that an earthquake at the subduction contact line (and at crust depth) between plates is a breakage of material there, and usually extends along the nearby subducting area (however in the long run, hundreds of years the whole contact line will have to show earthquakes, unless a new tectonic feature arises) As the plate involved in this Kuril Islands Big earthquake case, is the northern section of the Pacific plate bear in mind that this plate is being formed, born, at the Mid Pacific Ridge, which is exactly where a new strong earthquake has taken place today.

Ivar: Parallel energy transfers have been noticed (and noted) to occurr in hours, days, weeks, sometimes seconds. As it is not so much the speed of travel of the disturbance, but the moment the remotely triggered earthquakes takes place, what is finally sensed/registered, the calculation remains uncertain.

It has also been noted the possibility that Extra Deep Earthquakes, in the 550-700 range, are also probable cause of subsequent earthquakes updip plate, as the liquifaction of material at the end-place of the subducting plate "makes room" for the plate to "move" (further down). This in turn will cause earthquakes by friction/breakage of material at the subduction contact line.

Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !

This post has been edited by rafael peralta on Nov 19 2006, 11:57 PM

HOLA Rafael !


I'm very glad to see you back; I haven't been doing much in this area since you've been "away".

I am less than 6 months from being finished with my work in the US, and will be returning to the "Nazca Plate Subduction Zone " myself. Perhaps we can meet someday?




For Linda, and Ivars, and everyone else reading: a review of my opinion.

This holds true in Physics (QM) as well as Seismology. We traditionally inspect systems by narrowing down our focus. A problem arises, however, when "all the data" is in, and we keep the "blinders" on our explanation. This means that we CONTINUE to view the studied phenomena in ISOLATION, and we explain, and teach it that way too. This is finally catching up to us. We must include SYSTEMIC analysis to complete the picture.

The plates are not in isolation, and neither is the planet itself. Nothing I say disagrees with Rafael's work; they COMPLEMENT each other. He is breaking new ground, and is one of the first that I've seen to view the plates as a connected whole, rather than isolated "islands".


Ivar, please don't take offense, but saying that there will be an earthquake on the west coast of the US in the next few months is NOT a predictive statement. It is entirely probabilistic: of course one will happen. You say "big one", yet leave it undefined.

If you have determined a way to predict the SIZE, or magnitude of a quake, then you DO have something. Science is in the service of the public: we are here to answer questions. If you go back and read through this thread, you will see clearly that I have a method to predict both the location, and and time of an earthquake. I was able to predict batches of quakes at a time, with a great deal of accuracy. However, the missing part, the magnitude, remains elusive.

It is my opinion that the other 2 are useless without it. We can not issue WARNINGS without knowing WHAT we are warning against. Quakes happen every day, all around the World. It is only when they cause damage to life or property that they are a problem. Magnitude is what dictates these losses.


With all that being said, I will post here what I feel to be the TRIGGER to Rafael's CHARGE. The charge is like an explosive: it needs a method to detonate.

The Earth is in equilibrium in terms of energy. I postulate that the energy from an earthquake is in excess of this equilibrium. This energy then, must come from outside of this isolated system, and then be injected into the Earth. The release of this new, additional energy is in the form(s) of wave we call an earthquake. This is Intra-Solar System Conservation of Energy.


Isolating JUST the energy from the Sun that is outside its' normal parameter (equilibrium) you get a PARTIAL picture:




And further into the wavelengths we are used to seeing:



[images taken from GOES x-ray Solar Imager, NGDC / NOAA]
NOV 13, 2006 ~20:00UTC


Some basic calculations will give you the arrival time of this burst of energy, and some calculations of the cross sections of the flare or hole, and of the Earth (Resonance Interaction Zone) will tell you where this energy will hit.

This resonance, or transfer of energy, is predictable. The reaction, or ultimate magnitude of the energy released, is based on several other factors that I would estimate to be: Thermal storage of energy in the Earth, Geological makeup (fault lines, crystalline structure, water/liquid content), and Imbalance of energy created or "lingering" from the last significant release (quake).

These terms are beyond our current ability to collect data on a global scale, which I believe will be necessary to complete an accurate earthquake predicting theory that includes magnitude.


Regards,

T.Roc

This post has been edited by TRoc on Nov 20 2006, 06:55 PM

All,


Progress!

Turbulence in Space

Reported by: Narita et al., Physical Review Letters, 10 November 2006



ciao!

T.Roc



This post has been edited by TRoc on Nov 24 2006, 05:50 AM

This is what happens, almost exactly. As You say , "Energy" is stored for some time and released via inherent geometric structures of rotating Earth at the time when synchronizing trigger pulse starts the avalanche type release. I would rather call it MASS not energy, though.

When I speak about Earthquake in West USA I mean very big. I do not predict small earthquakes because I am not a sequential computer-I have no idea where they will happen. I am doing it intuitively, so I have to concentrate on one big thing. I know without proofs it sounds quite stupid but I was hoping someone else has more scientific proofs- but no one has really provided any ideas better than Mr. Sornette.

I hope I will be able to narrow down place, time, and magnitude + some other effects of THE EARTHQUAKE before it happens. Every day brings something new, but not yet definite enough.

As I said in one post, Sanfrancisco and area south of it as well as inland Sacramento valley, cost downwards Los Angeles will suffer from both Earthquake and flooding.North of SanFrancisco may only get severe Earthquake. This is based on geometric underlying structure of Earth Crust which I think is true, but is still only in my head, and not exact yet.

KURIL ISLANDS BIG EARTHQUAKE UPDATE

It has now been published that the Big Earthquake last 15th November was actually TWO Big earthquakes an 8.3 Mw followed by an 8.4 Mw magnitude some 26 minutes later.

FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 07:55:53 2006
Circle Search Earthquakes= 8
Circle Center Point Latitude: 46.000N Longitude: 156.000E
Radius: 500.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Magnitude Range: 6.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Preliminary Data Only


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112507.98 47.15 152.69 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 284
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112838.65 46.12 154.11 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 147
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112922.77 46.38 154.43 10 6.20 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 113458.32 46.67 155.31 10 6.50 mb GS .. . ....... 91
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL 2
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 212223.46 47.34 154.10 22 6.20 MwGS .. M ....... 208
PDE-Q 2006 11 16 062020.80 46.35 154.51 9 6.10 mb GS .. M ....... 121

That is quite a BIG release of mass-energy at both sides of a point on the northern Pacific Subduction Zone.
Following on the theme of earthquakes triggering, the second of these two B.E.'s was most probably triggered by the first one. We may be in the (right) moment for getting together all "prediction" theories, such as Troc's, intuition, earthquakes clouds, etc.
Put shortly, in my opinion Big earthquakes take place when the accumulated "stress/compression/mass/energy" on one point, gets beyond the permisible limit. At that point, earthly matter is broken and desintegrated, "transformed", with the subconsequent release of "energy" in the form of movement, shaking, rumbling and shattering. The triggering force, once this point gets near or beyond the permisible limit, may well be solar release of extra "energy", a nearby or far away earthquake, even a drilling blast, or if weget poetic, the drop of a feather. Now, in the case of eartquakes remotely triggering other earthquakes, which is what I study and analyse, I propose that "energy/mass" is transmitted via structural tectonic features such as plates and/or ridges, trenches. Huge faults if you like. Thus, an Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE) at the bottom end of the Nazca Plate, some 700 Kms deep, where it "disappears" or melts into the mantle material transforms the brittle material and releases energy. This released energy travels up the subducting plate and on the way encounters points on the brink of its permisible limits, some react and a new earthquakes takes place up-plate, then, as observed, a few days or months later, another earthquake will take place sort of showing the path the energy has traveled. The portion of the plate has then been shaken, room has been made at the bottom (by melting) for the plate to move further down. Eventually, it will move and for this to take place it will need to de-couple itself at some area. This area will in the near future be the rupture area of the next B.E.
In other cases, a B.E. (such as Sumatra's) taking place nearby a trench, I propose that the triggering factor will travel along these ridges/trenches as far as it will, eventually going around the globe (along this tectonic plates border/limits) on the way affecting points which are near the limit. Sumatra itself may have been triggered by a B.E. taken place a few days before south a New Zealand. Once the Big Sumatra Earthquake took place on Dec 26th 2004, I expected energy to travel along these borders in three directions: North-East along the philipines-Japan-Aleutian trenches all the way to California, South-West along the Tonga-Antartic-Nazca trenches and West along the Himalayan- Anatolian trenches. It did go that way with Major Earthquakes taking place in Tarapaca (Chile) California, then Pakistan and all. Those places that were affected but did not realeased, only accumulated more "stress/compression" and are now begining to release. It is only matter of plotting and seeing.

FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 08:33:29 2006
Global Search Earthquakes= 32
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2004 - 2006 Month: 10/Day: 01 Month: 11/Day: 25
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE 2004 10 09 212653.69 11.42 -86.67 35 7.00 Ms GS 4FFM .......
PDE 2004 11 11 212641.15 -8.15 124.87 10 7.50 MwHRV 8CFM ......S
PDE 2004 11 15 090656.56 4.70 -77.51 15 7.20 MwGS .CFM ......V
PDE 2004 11 22 202623.90 -46.68 164.72 10 7.10 Ms GS NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 11 26 022503.31 -3.61 135.40 10 7.20 Ms GS .C M .......
PDE 2004 11 28 183214.13 43.01 145.12 39 7.00 MwGS JAPAN
PDE 2004 12 23 145904.41 -49.31 161.35 10 8.10 MwHRV NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 12 26 005853.45 3.30 95.98 30 9.00 MwHRV SUMATRA 1
PDE 2004 12 26 042129.81 6.91 92.96 39 7.50 Ms GS .. M .......
PDE 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwHRV Going west (EDE)
PDE 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS south west
PDE 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.60 MwHRV SUMATRA 2
PDE 2005 06 13 224433.90 -19.99 -69.20 115 7.80 MwGS TARAPACA
PDE 2005 06 15 025054.19 41.29 -125.95 16 7.20 MwHRV CALIFORNIA
PDE 2005 07 24 154206.21 7.92 92.19 16 7.50 Ms GS 5DFM .......
PDE 2005 08 16 024628.40 38.28 142.04 36 7.20 MwHRV 8CFM .T....S
PDE 2005 09 09 072643.73 -4.54 153.47 90 7.60 MwHRV .FFM .......
PDE 2005 09 26 015537.67 -5.68 -76.40 115 7.50 MwGS 6CFM .......
PDE-W 2005 10 08 035040.80 34.54 73.59 26 7.70 Ms GS PAKISTAN
PDE-W 2005 11 14 213851.42 38.11 144.90 11 7.00 MwHRV 4F M .T.....
PDE-W 2005 12 05 121956.62 -6.22 29.83 22 7.20 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 01 02 061049.23 -60.93 -21.58 10 7.40 MwHRV .. M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 02 221340.49 -19.93 -178.18 582 7.20 MwHRV .F M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 27 165853.67 -5.47 128.13 397 7.60 MwHRV 5F M .......
PDE-W 2006 02 22 221907.80 -21.32 33.58 11 7.50 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 04 20 232502.15 60.95 167.09 22 7.60 Ms GS KORYAKIA RUSIA
PDE-W 2006 05 03 152640.29 -20.19 -174.12 55 7.90 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 05 16 103923.34 -31.78 -179.31 151 7.40 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 07 17 081928.75 -9.25 107.41 34 7.70 MwHRV .C M .T.....
PDE-W 2006 08 20 034147.53 -61.03 -34.37 10 7.00 MwGS .. M .......
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL I. 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL I. 2

Happy plotting and much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone!